TORONTO — The six-run drought ended on Monday. For the first time in 21 games, the Toronto Blue Jays scored at least six runs in a game and beat the Kansas City Royals 6-5 on Monday at the Rogers Centre.
If that wasn’t enough of a clue, the Blue Jays offence has gotten off to a sluggish start this season. It’s felt all too familiar — consistently scoring runs was a central issue for the 2023 Blue Jays, and one the club pledged would be improved this season. But, through nearly the first month, the Blue Jays offence ranks 24th in runs scored.
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Let’s look at three takeaways from the lineup’s performance through the team’s first 30 games.
Hitting with RISP remains an issue
Stop if you’ve heard this before. The Blue Jays have struggled to hit with runners in scoring position. Collecting enough key hits was an issue for large parts of the 2023 season — Toronto finished with a just-above-average 102 wRC+ in RISP situations after sitting below average in the first half — and that trend has carried into this season.
The Blue Jays were hitting .193 with runners in scoring position, which ranked 29th, just above the lowly Chicago White Sox. The Blue Jays’ .561 OPS with runners in scoring position ranked last.
The Blue Jays haven’t scored more than five runs in a game since April 6, when they lost 9-8 to the New York Yankees. Monday was only the fourth time all season the Blue Jays have scored six runs or more. Their 3.55 average runs per game ranks fourth-lowest in the majors, only above the Miami Marlins, Oakland A’s and White Sox.
Considering these issues were well-treaded last year, Blue Jays manager John Schneider was asked how the club could apply lessons they learned throughout those scoring dry spells to jump-start the lineup this year.
“I think just making sure the work is right and making sure that we’re preparing the guys as best we can,” he said. “And trusting the fact that they’re going to perform. All these guys have track records and I think as long as they’re preparing the right way and understanding their own swing, which we feel like they are. They’re all real close, I think, so you got to be patient.”
The Blue Jays need more from George Springer and the top of the lineup. (Dan Hamilton / USA Today)
Top of the Jays’ lineup needs to deliver
The struggles from the top of the lineup have been a major factor in the lack of scoring. The Blue Jays need their stars to start clicking if they’re going to score at a more consistent and winning pace.
George Springer, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette are all sporting OPSs below .700 — Bichette’s is actually below .600 — and they’ve combined for just seven home runs and 26 RBIs. (For comparison’s sake, Royals’ catcher Salvador Perez has 26 RBIs on his own.)
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Despite their lack of results, the Blue Jays have tried to take encouragement from the approach in the at-bats.
“Guys at the top of our order are taking better swings and that’s what we want,” Schneider told reporters on Saturday. “They don’t want to be scuffling, they want to be a big part of the team, which they are, but the fact that we’re taking good swings, I think that’s kind of a silver lining.”
Bichette, who had the day off on Monday, isn’t hitting the ball as hard as he typically does, with a 37.5 percent hard-hit rate. Given his history, it’s reasonable to expect that he will climb out of this funk. Guerrero, meanwhile, is hitting the ball harder than ever but ground balls continue to be an issue for him and his strikeout rate is above 20 percent. (Guerrero has never finished a season with a strikeout rate above 18 percent.) Still, he’s gone back-to-back games with two hits and it always feels as though Guerrero is just a hit or two away from heating up.
“He’s as good as anybody, really,” Schneider said. “I think when he’s not really thinking about mechanics or anything like that, that’s what we get (the best) out of Vlad. He’s working his a— off — he really is.”
Springer started the season with two home runs in his first two games, but he’s hit only one since then. Overall, his hard-hit rate is lower than a year ago, continuing a downward trend for the right-fielder on his batted-ball data. One of the big questions coming into this season was whether age was catching up to Springer after a career-worst season in 2023, especially as he enters the back half of his six-year, $150 million contract. Through the first month, he hasn’t managed to squash those doubts yet.
Justin Turner has delivered — but he can’t do it all
With two swings, Turner tied the game and then put the Blue Jays ahead on Monday night, hitting a pair of home runs in the first and third innings. It was the 16th two-homer game of Turner’s career and the first as a Blue Jay.
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Even as the lineup around him has struggled, Turner has been the patient and productive contributor the Blue Jays wanted when they signed him to a one-year, $13 million contract. Through his first 28 games this season, the designated hitter is slashing .311/.390/.533 with four home runs and a team-leading 15 RBIs. Schneider called him “probably our most consistent hitter.” He’s also continued his career-long clutch-hitting trend with the Blue Jays and has been their best hitter with runners in scoring position, with a .779 OPS in those situations.
Off the field, Turner has also been a helpful voice in the clubhouse, with Schneider likening him to having another hitting coach for players to talk to.
“He’s really seen just about everything this game has to offer and I think that’s why he’s really good in tight situations and doesn’t really deviate from what he does,” Schneider said.
The Blue Jays would love it if Turner could continue at this pace all season, but he can do a lot more damage from the clean-up spot if the players ahead of him in the lineup get on base at a more frequent clip.
“George, Vlad and Bo are going to hit, whether it’s tomorrow or the next day or the next day,” Schneider said. “Ideally, (Turner’s) up with those guys on base, so hopefully that starts tomorrow and we trust that those guys are going to do their thing.”
(Top photo of Turner: Dan Hamilton / USA Today)
Kaitlyn McGrath is a staff writer for The Athletic, covering the Toronto Blue Jays. Previously, she worked at the National Post and CBC. Follow Kaitlyn on Twitter @kaitlyncmcgrath
